We find large and significant positive effects from Gavi’s funding programmes: on average a 12.02 percentage point increase in DPT immunisation coverage (95% CI 6.56 to 17.49) and an 8.81 percentage point increase in measles immunisation coverage (95% CI 3.58 to 14.04) over the period to 2016. We control for economy size and population of each country as well as running a suite of robustness checks and sensitivity tests. Taking a difference-in-differences quasi-experimental approach to observational data, we estimate the impact of Gavi eligibility on immunisation coverage and mortality rates over time, using WHO/UNICEF figures covering 1995–2016. Additionally, we look at effects on infant and child mortality. We assess whether Gavi’s funding programmes have indeed increased immunisation coverage in 51 recipient countries for two key vaccines for 12–23 month olds: combined diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus (DPT) and measles. Funding has increased significantly over time, with Gavi disbursements reaching US $1.58 billion in 2015. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, was set up in 2000 to improve access to vaccines for children living in the poorest countries. These findings have critical implications for institutional policy and practice. Supplemental analyses suggest that the graduation effects based on cutoffs for college semester GPA and early overall GPA were predominantly or entirely driven by attrition that occurred soon after the probationary placement, whereas graduation effects based on the overall GPA cutoff with at least 30 college credits appeared to be driven mostly by delaying time to degree.
The findings were robust across analytic approaches and were observed regardless of students’ race, sex, first-generation status, high school GPA, and standardized test scores the effects were sometimes larger among students who had higher high school GPAs and female students. The results frequently identified large or very large negative effects of probationary placement on four-year graduation, and these were greatest for probationary criteria based on either semester GPA or an overall GPA criterion in which students had accrued fewer than 30 total college credits. The present study explored the influence of academic probation on four-year graduation using regression discontinuity analyses with a dataset of 9,777 undergraduates. Placing students on academic probation is a pervasive practice at colleges and universities, but the lasting impact-and arguably even the purpose-of academic probation is unclear.
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